Financial projections

I'm trying to scratch out my financial situation on a virtual matchbook as I look off toward the Northwest. I prepared balance sheets for myself based on current state and based on projected state after the Vashon house has been completed.

Assumptions:

1. Asset growth will keep up with inflation (8% growth) - this is highly unpredictable, especially since I'm invested almost entirely in equities. It's probably the biggest red flag. Investments could drop by 30% or more one year and take 10 years or more to recover. During that period, I'd be pulling an elevated draw.
2. Home cost will be $600K
3. I will pay half the home cost up front and will finance the other half

Here's how things look now. I have a fair amount in investments - mostly in retirement funds, of course. I have $300K sitting in Vanguard that I took out of home equity/added to the balance of my mortgage. I plan to use that $300K towards the new house.

 
 

Now here's my situation after construction has been completed. I have more in R/E assets, less in current assets, and more in loans. The ratio of assets to liabilities is 5:1. Supposedly that's HALF the ratio one should have when one has left the job market. Ideally, one should have no debt. Ruh roh.



Still, I'm currently only withdrawing $60K/annually from my investments. That might increase to $75K/annually after the house is built - to cover the new mortgage payments. Here's a snapshot of the projection I've been following. The idea is that I could withdraw 4% of my investment balance every year in perpetuity based on a hypothetical annual return rate of 8%. 4% of my current balance is $100K. As mentioned, I'm currently only withdrawing $60K.



It would be nice to have zero debt, but I think the numbers work. Wish there was someone I could run them by. Tempted to go to a financial planner for a second opinion.
  
Do You Have The Right Asset-To-Liability Ratio To Retire Comfortably?